How Black Friday sales are changing retail behaviour
Retail once revolved around key holidays, until the industry disrupted itself with the rise of Black Friday.
In brief
- Special event sales such as Black Friday are changing the calendar for retailers and consumers.
- Customers are moving their spending to November, to coincide with Black Friday, at the expense of the traditional Christmas spend.
- These sales events work well for the business model of large retail chain stores with buying power and scale rather than for smaller retailers who rely on selling at recommended retail prices.
There are a few explanations of how ‘Black Friday’ got its name. The term became popular in the US in the 1950s to describe the day after Thanksgiving (the fourth Thursday in November), with some sources believing it refers to the point when retailers, after operating at a loss for the year (in the red) earned a profit (in the black).
Others claim it came from Philadelphia’s police force, who used the term to describe the chaos that followed Thanksgiving as crowds of tourists flooded the city for the annual Saturday army-navy football game. The police spoke of Black Friday disparagingly, as they were not allowed to take time off and had to work longer shifts to deal with the masses. Apparently, shoplifters took advantage of the busyness of the shops, which added to law enforcements’ headache.
Online shopping has given it more momentum and today Black Friday – and Cyber Monday which follows it – are marked in the retail calendar around the world, including in Australia and New Zealand.
So, how have these and other sales events impacted retail?
The ripple effect of Black Friday
Brian Walker, the Sydney-based founder and chief executive of analyst firm the Retail Doctor, says there is clear evidence of the “pull-forward effect” in Australia due to Black Friday and Cyber Monday and that the events are “cannibalising” December spending.
In Australia, he says, retail turnover rose 0.8% in November 2024, “largely due to Black Friday discounting”, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported the December sales were down 0.1%. The ABS says consumers are also restraining their spending in October, perhaps to take advantage of better deals in November.
“These figures support the idea of pull-forward behaviour, with people delaying purchases until November promotions instead of waiting for December,” says Walker. “The effect is strongest in discretionary categories like electronics and home goods, and extended promotional periods also blur the measurement of a single weekend uplift.”
Walker observes that while Black Friday cannibalises Christmas spending, Boxing Day still “retains significance”, with the 2024 Australian sales reported to be A$1.3 billion.
Why inflation and consumer behaviour matter
Physical foot traffic in stores on Boxing Day itself may be down slightly, but purchases are increasingly shifting online or into extended sale windows. Then there is the fact that shoppers love discounts or what they think is a better deal and this sentiment has been brought to the fore during this period of higher inflation.
“During periods of cost-of-living stress consumers become more deal-sensitive, so events with deep discounts outperform weaker promotional periods,” says Walker. “Consumers may concentrate spending into a smaller number of ‘safe bet’ events rather than spreading it across the calendar. Retailers are pushing earlier promotions partly due to supply chain and cash flow pressures, not just consumer behaviour.”
Black Friday in New Zealand
“Black Friday is becoming increasingly important in New Zealand and, in some categories, has overtaken Boxing Day,” says Walker.
Worldline NZ released data in December 2024 that payments across the three-day Black Friday weekend (Friday to Sunday) reached NZ$175.6 million, virtually matching the 2023 spend.
At Retail NZ, Carolyn Young is chief executive of an industry body representing 70% of the nation’s retail turnover. Young says November, December and January are the months that are “pivotal to a retailer’s longevity” and these sales keep them going through the rest of the year when trading can be slower.
The impact on small retailers
Black Friday, Young says, is more about ‘big box’ retail than it is about the smaller businesses, although they too have to go along with it in the attempt to lift their sales.
“Smaller firms don’t like Black Friday so much because their sales model is built on the premise that they are selling at a recommended retail price,” explains Young. “A small retailer has a very traditional buying position and they need to make sure they maximise the number of sales at the recommended retail price.”
Young gives an example of a retailer in the South Island who started an anti-Black Friday campaign, selling products at full price and giving a percentage of their sales as a donation to charity. Meanwhile, a bookshop in the port city of Timaru has banned the utterance of Black Friday, with the offender being fined NZ$5, which is donated to the region’s early childhood centres.
Consumers, however, are getting the Black Friday message and are almost trained to time their purchases.
“Sometimes consumers will put off paying full price because they are thinking that the item they want will be on sale in a couple of weeks,” says Young.
Despite the qualms of smaller retailers, she sees sales events only gaining popularity in New Zealand and cites the emergence of Matariki in July as an example.
“A retailer is looking at the year and thinking about what stock they’ll discount,” says Young. “July is an opportunity to sell winter stock before the worst of winter comes, so the timing will make sense for some.”
Whether it’s Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Boxing Day or Matariki, sales events are now embedded in Australia and New Zealand’s retail culture. For consumers, that means more opportunities for bargains, but also a shift in how and when they spend.
For retailers, it’s a balancing act between boosting short-term sales and managing long-term profitability in a landscape where discounts drive behaviour.
When is Black Friday in Australia and New Zealand?
Black Friday falls on the Friday after the US Thanksgiving holiday in late November. In 2025, Black Friday will be 28 November, followed by Cyber Monday on 1 December.
Is Black Friday bigger than Boxing Day in Australia?
Not yet, but it’s close. Black Friday sales are pulling spending forward, especially in categories like electronics and home goods. However, Boxing Day still records strong sales.
Do New Zealanders shop on Black Friday?
Yes. Black Friday has overtaken Boxing Day in some categories in New Zealand, according to an analysis by Dot Loves Data of ANZ. In saying that, non-Christmas related busy sales days are coming close to the Black Friday sales figures too.
“The rise in Matariki spending highlights a shift in consumer focus, as Kiwis embrace the opportunity to celebrate this uniquely New Zealand holiday. The surge we’re seeing is a testament to its growing significance, not just culturally but economically,” says Justin Lester, Dot Loves Data director.
How does Black Friday affect small businesses?
Smaller retailers often struggle to compete with large retail chain stores offering deep discounts. Some have responded by creating anti-Black Friday campaigns that prioritise full-price products, but make donations to local charities to maintain customer loyalty.
Audio articles
Explore Acuity on Air, the playlist where the pages of Acuity magazine come to life.
Listen now